Post-war historical trends are becoming less reliable guides to current political behaviour, so I wouldn't blame yourself for thinking that Starmer wouldn't become prime minister!
I find it odd that you suggest that moving further to the right may not hurt the Conservatives electorally, despite the precedents you mention - Foot, Hague and Corbyn - all getting routed for moving away from the centre ground.
Yes, I should have made it clearer that, imo, a move to the right probably won't be successful. Then again, this is far from guaranteed, as I say in the piece.
My possibly naïve takeaway was that vote share numbers reveal Britain to be similarly right-leaning to France or Italy. Another is the elephant in the room of Islamism. Despite the relentless portrayal of people who are concerned about support for jihadists being 'xenophobic' 'racist' etc that looks like a real problem to me. With several 'pro-Gaza' independents elected, it looks like a tipping point of some kind is on the way. That's a problem for modern Labour and an opportunity for rejuvenating a fractured Right. Am I oversimplifying?
Yes, this appears to be a problem. If the independent MPs are Islamists - and I'm not sure of this, not knowing much about them - then this would certainly be a worrying trend. Unfortunately, the salience of the Gaza issue has entailed several problems for liberal democracy and, as you say, these problems don't seem likely to end soon.
I agree with you point about things being outside party political control, with the caveat that certain institutions were stuffed with Blair's cronies during Labour's last hand at the levers of power. The Conservatives failed to address this. Their bonfire of the Quangos was more of a damp sparkler on a cold November Night. I don't see Starmer reversing the trend. The Conservatives look like Dresden in 1945. There is no 're-set' and no refurb. As a concept the Tories are finished. And good riddance. They represented everything bad about politics, much as it pains me to admit it. You may be sceptical about my brutal opinion. I cite the following; one, the rise of the right globally, two, the complete lack of a coherent direction and three, the prospect of Proportional Representation. (Yes, I know Keir is not keen, but the Labour Party is.)
Not to mention the designated survivors; a disparate rump of sexual predators, has-beens and grand-standers who could not agree on anything between them. All the grandees are long gone. Anyone from the Thatcher era is wisely paying attention to his Duck House or trying not to pee themselves in the other House. Any right-leaning personage of note is outside the Commons. People like Dan Hannan, Rory Stewart, Sir Anthony Seldon, Tim Montgomerie, Matthew Goodwin, et al. - desultory, but this list is virtually endless. The clever people are either in journalism or academia and none of them have so far put their heads above the electoral parapet. More than a few remaining Tories of note jumped the ship before it went down like an Albanian inflatable dingy.
With the emergence once again of the Lib Dems as a credible numerical force, the beginnings of voting reform in the form of PR may yet get on to the agenda. At which point, the sad tatters of the Tory Party will be just another fringe group of sentimental loonies who spend most of their time crying into their sherry at the Carlton.
Post-war historical trends are becoming less reliable guides to current political behaviour, so I wouldn't blame yourself for thinking that Starmer wouldn't become prime minister!
Haha - I won't go too hard on myself :-)
I find it odd that you suggest that moving further to the right may not hurt the Conservatives electorally, despite the precedents you mention - Foot, Hague and Corbyn - all getting routed for moving away from the centre ground.
Yes, I should have made it clearer that, imo, a move to the right probably won't be successful. Then again, this is far from guaranteed, as I say in the piece.
My possibly naïve takeaway was that vote share numbers reveal Britain to be similarly right-leaning to France or Italy. Another is the elephant in the room of Islamism. Despite the relentless portrayal of people who are concerned about support for jihadists being 'xenophobic' 'racist' etc that looks like a real problem to me. With several 'pro-Gaza' independents elected, it looks like a tipping point of some kind is on the way. That's a problem for modern Labour and an opportunity for rejuvenating a fractured Right. Am I oversimplifying?
Yes, this appears to be a problem. If the independent MPs are Islamists - and I'm not sure of this, not knowing much about them - then this would certainly be a worrying trend. Unfortunately, the salience of the Gaza issue has entailed several problems for liberal democracy and, as you say, these problems don't seem likely to end soon.
I agree with you point about things being outside party political control, with the caveat that certain institutions were stuffed with Blair's cronies during Labour's last hand at the levers of power. The Conservatives failed to address this. Their bonfire of the Quangos was more of a damp sparkler on a cold November Night. I don't see Starmer reversing the trend. The Conservatives look like Dresden in 1945. There is no 're-set' and no refurb. As a concept the Tories are finished. And good riddance. They represented everything bad about politics, much as it pains me to admit it. You may be sceptical about my brutal opinion. I cite the following; one, the rise of the right globally, two, the complete lack of a coherent direction and three, the prospect of Proportional Representation. (Yes, I know Keir is not keen, but the Labour Party is.)
Not to mention the designated survivors; a disparate rump of sexual predators, has-beens and grand-standers who could not agree on anything between them. All the grandees are long gone. Anyone from the Thatcher era is wisely paying attention to his Duck House or trying not to pee themselves in the other House. Any right-leaning personage of note is outside the Commons. People like Dan Hannan, Rory Stewart, Sir Anthony Seldon, Tim Montgomerie, Matthew Goodwin, et al. - desultory, but this list is virtually endless. The clever people are either in journalism or academia and none of them have so far put their heads above the electoral parapet. More than a few remaining Tories of note jumped the ship before it went down like an Albanian inflatable dingy.
With the emergence once again of the Lib Dems as a credible numerical force, the beginnings of voting reform in the form of PR may yet get on to the agenda. At which point, the sad tatters of the Tory Party will be just another fringe group of sentimental loonies who spend most of their time crying into their sherry at the Carlton.
Yet the Conservative Party is the oldest party in the world - it may be more resilient than some think!
Nothing lasts forever. Even the longest, the most glittering reign must come to an end someday (FU)