Three thoughts on Thursday's election

As expected, Labour won Thursday’s UK election and Keir Starmer is prime minister. Having read/watched an enormous amount of coverage since Thursday, I have three thoughts…

1/ It bears repeating – Labour will find it difficult to transform the country

Though most commentators emphasize Labour's challenges – after all, the economy and public services could be in better shape – the limited potential for significant change is worth underlining. Some do not understand this. Passing today’s newspaper stand, I saw headlines impatient for change.

As readers of this Substack know, I am sceptical about the extent of government influence. Research shows that the partisan profile of governments is a secondary influence on socioeconomic outcomes; institutions are most important. For such reasons, I am wary of claims of party-led transformations.

Beyond this, the Labour manifesto promised few new tax rises and, early in his government, Starmer will not want to lose discipline. Historically, voters have punished Labour for high taxes. I voted Labour, but my primary motivation was more professional governance. In the next parliament, those who expect the Starmer government to transform the country will be disappointed. These expectations may be unreasonable – research suggests that key performance metrics, such as unemployment and the quality of healthcare, tend to lie outside political control – yet these disappointed voters will, of course, be a problem for Labour.

2/ But a Starmer government may have greater longevity than people think

When he was appointed leader, I wrote a piece predicting that Keir Starmer would not become prime minister! That may have been badly wrong, yet I like falsifiable predictions. Even if they are mistaken, their logic tends to be clear. In this case, I thought that Starmer had too much to do. The Conservatives had just won an 80-seat majority and, traditionally, governments with such advantages are re-elected.  

Beyond Conservative incompetence, the fraying of the UK political system explains Thursday’s result. Party identification, trust and turnout are historically low and, therefore, outcomes are more unpredictable.

Given these conditions, some hope that the Conservatives can make a quick comeback. However, we should not underestimate the resilience of the UK system. With a 172-seat majority, Labour are well-placed to serve successive terms. Such indicators have been low for years, but did not stop the Conservatives from winning multiple terms.

In the UK, Conservative governments may be more frequent – Iversen and Soskice (2006) argue that this reflects the liberal-majoritarian profile of the UK political economy - but Labour will still enjoy the benefits of incumbency, such as greater media attention and the ability to set policy agendas. As a new governing party, the Starmer government will have advantages which recent Conservative governments did not have. Voters will give it time; there will be new ideas and faces. Without wishing to curse Starmer(!), I suspect that the Labour Party will win the next election.

3/ The Conservatives will probably (and maybe should) move to the right

In British politics, ejected incumbents tend to lurch to extremes. The Foot (Labour), Hague (Conservative) and Corbyn (Labour) leaderships are examples. This reflects the cyclical nature of politics. Whilst in power, parties make compromises which upset core voters. After losing the centre ground, ejected parties face pressure to appease such supporters. Currently, the Conservatives face this dilemma; many expect the party to move to the right.

Should the Conservatives do this? Such a move would not necessarily preclude victory in the next election – in our polarized societies, extreme positions are often successful – and the party may have few other options.

Indeed, there are reasons to favour this strategy. In the 2019 election, the Brexit Party won a mere 2% of the vote; the Conservatives successfully united the right, winning a handsome majority. In this election, the right was anything but united; Reform won 14% of the vote.

For the Conservatives, Reform voters are low-hanging fruit. Appeals to them may hinder later moves to the centre, but the party will find it difficult to resist this strategy. In the short-term, this may be the easiest strategy and, as I say, would not preclude victory in the next election.

Anyway, those are my thoughts. I am very interested in how this parliament turns out and, of course, will write about it here. Let me know what you think in the comments.

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