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Maxim Lott's avatar

My theory: It's because the UK is particularly un-democratic.

In contrast to the US, where *anyone* can run and win in a party primary, my understanding is that to run with a UK party, you have to secure approval by certain party committees. These committees are staffed by old-guard people (for an American, perhaps comparable to the Bushes, Romneys, etc.) The recent PM selections were also done by MPs, instead of via direct democracy (except for one round where voters got the very temporary privilege of picking Truss over Sunak.)

That electoral structure is preventing the conservative party from having MPs who are actually in touch with their base.

While the Conservative party is captured by business elites who are out of touch with their base, Labour is captured by academic/activist elites who are out of touch with theirs.

In contrast, US conservative politicians post-Trump (Trump, DeSantis, etc) are now culturally in touch with their voters. The transition was faster in the US because there were fewer elite-gatekept hoops for politicians to jump through to run.

Also in contrast, continental Europe has a very democratic system that allows easy entrance of 3rd parties, something that's not the case in the UK or US. This has allowed populists to achieve meaningful wins in countries like Sweden.

Raheem Kassam makes this point well here: https://www.newsweek.com/britains-tory-turmoil-about-more-mere-partisan-blundering-opinion-1753659

UK politics will become more stable if the will of voters is actually reflected, and populist demands are appeased more -- which perhaps would be reflected in more social democracy on the right and less wokism on the left.

The UK should consider switching to the continental European system.

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Michael Fogg's avatar

As always, an interesting read, Tom.

Political crystal balls are in short supply at present, although it seems that some individuals are more attuned to the pulse of public opinion than others. Unfortunately, for us as a nation and for the western geopolitical states as a whole, we are seeing the rise of the political pragmatist. This in response to the very breakdown that you described.

No better a political weathervane exists in the UK than one Boris Johnson. He was never going to take back over following the ill-fated experiment with 'Trussonomics'. He will, however, be able to watch as the main architect of his toppling is ridiculed as being economically impotent. Then, when the Labour Party win the next General Election, he will seek to return as Leader of the Opposition to criticise with his trademark bombast.

He will then be well set to become the first Prime Minister since Harold Wilson to be returned as Prime Minister on two non-consecutive General Elections.

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