Welsh politics may be finally maturing

On Thursday, elections for the Welsh parliament (Senedd) will take place. Having led governments since the first devolved elections in 1999, the Welsh Labour Party is set to be humbled. The left-nationalist Plaid Cymru is likely to win the election and form a government, with the radical right populist Reform coming second.

Given these circumstances, the election has attracted much commentary. Yet beyond the immediate implications, the election offers a chance to take stock of the longer-term trajectory of Welsh politics. The architects of devolution (i.e. the transfer of power to Wales) underlined the importance of future development – famously, Ron Davies asserted that devolution was ‘a process, not an event’ – and, 27 years after the first devolved election, we may ask whether Welsh politics has matured.

The long era of Labour-led governments suggests that, until this point, things have not been working as they should. Liberal democracy, of course, involves the alteration of governing parties, reflecting the tendency of power to produce diminishing returns and for voters to tire of the status quo. In no other Western country has a party enjoyed such dominance at national level in recent times, even if certain regional parties boast such records (examples include the Christian Social Union in Bavaria and the Social Democratic Party in Madeira).

This latter fact provides a clue about the nature of previous Welsh elections. Rather than being first-order elections (i.e. elections to which voters, parties and the media assign primary importance), Welsh elections have tended to have a second-order profile, like council and European elections. Therefore, Welsh politics has suffered from a lack of attention. For example, the 2019 Welsh Election Study (WES) asked voters for their comparative interest in Welsh and UK politics. On a 1-4 scale, voters reported an average interest of 2.77 in UK politics and 2.48 in Welsh politics. In the 2021 WES, voters rated their knowledge of UK politics at an average of 5.45 (out of 10), compared to 4.73 for Welsh politics. The state of the Welsh media has compounded such problems. Wales has never had a developed press and, in recent years, the decline of the more serious Western Mail and rise of the clickbaity Wales Online have exacerbated this problem.

Such lack of interest and coverage have created further challenges. Many voters are motivated by UK politics rather than Welsh politics, as they might prioritize national developments over local ones in council elections. This has frustrated the development of specifically Welsh political cleavages (i.e. the party embodiment of social differences) and is a key reason for Labour’s electoral hegemony. For much of the period of devolution, the Conservative Party has governed in Westminster, allowing Welsh Labour to present itself as a kind of opposition. However, this defeats the very point of Welsh elections as polls on Welsh governing records and plans.

Of course, such issues are long-term challenges which were never likely to be solved immediately. As we have seen, the architects of devolution recognized this. Therefore, the current election raises the question of the extent to such challenges are relenting. Undoubtedly, there are signs of progress. Following the outbreak of the Coronavirus pandemic, Welsh voters could not fail to notice the extent of devolved powers and, to a great degree, the 2021 Senedd election was a referendum on the management of the pandemic. Voter attention shifted accordingly and, in the 2021 WES, there were smaller differences in interest in Welsh and UK politics. Developments during the 2021-26 Senedd consolidated this trend. Though the introduction of a 20mph speed limit negatively affected the popularity of Welsh Labour, it helped to increase the profile of Welsh politics.

What will emerge at the end of this process? Short of the coming of independence, Welsh politics will never escape the shadow of Westminster. For example, the deep unpopularity of the UK Conservative Party continues to constrain the growth of the Welsh right. Despite this, a party system is emerging which reflects Welsh conditions. In this week’s election, the populist Reform will be the right’s standard bearer, rather than the Welsh Conservatives. Notwithstanding their emphasis upon British identity, Reform articulate Welsh concerns such as opposition to the 20mph regulation and the desire to assert a post-industrial identity.

Developments on the left are equally complex. Certainly, Labour’s decline in popularity reflects disappointment with the UK Starmer government. However, Welsh factors are also important. As we have noted, many voters are disillusioned with Welsh Labour’s long tenure and record in government. Moreover, Plaid’s popularity may reflect a desire for greater Welsh autonomy, itself an achievement of devolution. Overall, Welsh politics seems to moving towards an equilibrium which reflects Welsh governing records and cleavages, rather than UK ones.

Of course, this is not to say that Welsh politics no longer has challenges. Rather, the problems which affect a second-order polity are turning into those that afflict a small country. As with other small countries, intimate relations between government and civil society can encourage cronyism. Like Scotland and Ireland, the unbalanced profile of civic organizations allows policy entrepreneurs to introduce policies which have little popular legitimacy; in recent years, such policies have been radically progressive ones. Wales has problems which other small countries do not have. Some of the most talented young people leave the country and, as we have seen, the state of the Welsh press is regrettable.

Nonetheless, Wales has made real progress. This week, the probable end of Labour hegemony will be a further milestone; in liberal democracies, no single party should dominate elections.

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