If Labour is elected, the sky probably won’t fall in

This week, the political scientist Matt Goodwin attacked the UK Labour Party, arguing that the party’s probable victory in this year’s election would entail a cultural revolution. For Goodwin, Labour favours radical theories which would irrevocably change society,

‘The rapidly approaching Labour government is about to put the radically progressive cultural revolution that’s already been sweeping through Britain for many years on steroids. Starmer’s Labour, in short, is about to use its immense political, electoral, and cultural power to import a very crude, a very divisive, and a very unBritish racial politics from America and hardwire it into the very fabric of our country and its institutions.’

Whilst I have never agreed with Goodwin’s exact analysis, such problems have long occupied me. In the summer of 2021, I thought about voting Conservative, citing Labour’s embrace of social justice ideology and the comparative moderation of the Johnson government. This essay proved controversial on Twitter, many overlooking that I was thinking of doing this.

Since 2021, we may debate the extent to which things have changed. Goodwin dismisses Starmer’s efforts to make the party more moderate, emphasizing the proposed Race Equality Act and the comments of shadow ministers about ‘white privilege’. According to Goodwin, ‘radical progressives’ are the dominant force within the Labour Party and drive the adoption of such policies. Yet their ideas are very unpopular with the public, ‘closer to being an 80-20 than a 50-50 issue’.

We may dispute this. Whilst party activists have an important role, scholars emphasize the primacy of voter preferences; for this reason, median voter theorem predicts that parties are prone to moderation. In my opinion, Starmer’s actions have been consistent with such expectations. Recently, Labour has embraced moderate patriotism, rejected American race theories and adopted a sensible position on gender self-identification. Polling is consistent with this interpretation. If radical progressives are the major influence on Labour policy and their ideas are very unpopular, why is the Labour party so far ahead in the polls?

Goodwin acknowledges the limits of partisan influence on economic policy, but does not recognize such constraints on culture. We may quarrel with this. Social justice ideology emerged as a serious force during the Trump administration/Conservative governments, suggesting independence from governing agendas. Primarily, it seems to be an ideology of sociocultural sectors, reflecting long-term demographic trends which have little to do with government policy.

This does not mean that government policy does not matter – I share some of Goodwin’s concerns about Labour - yet indicates the importance of balancing relevant considerations. Here, several factors are pertinent. The Conservatives have been in power since 2010 and, as I argued last week, lengthy incumbencies are bad for democracy. Beyond generic arguments, the government has longstanding issues with competency and public services are in poor shape.

As readers will have gathered, I now favour the Labour Party. This is an individual choice, yet analysts should adopt balanced views on culture war issues; doing otherwise diminishes these complex and fascinating topics.

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