Fiasco - the People’s Vote seven years on

A review of No Second Chances: the Inside Story of the Campaign for a Second Referendum

Almost ten years on from the era-defining 2016 Brexit referendum, Britain may be in the mood for reflection. Therefore, we should welcome the publication of Morgan Jones’ No Second Chances: the Inside Story of the Campaign for a Second Referendum (Biteback publishing, £20). Rather than dwelling on the initial referendum, Jones’ focus is the protracted battle to enact Brexit. This was fought during the 2017-19 parliament and ended, of course, with the Johnson landslide and British exit from the EU.

I should declare a personal interest. I was very active during the 2016 Brexit referendum, campaigning for Remain across South Wales. Indeed, I was involved in the early stages of the People’s Vote campaign. In the late summer of 2018, I helped my mother – an even keener campaigner than me and a Liberal Democrats parliamentary candidate in 2017 – hand out leaflets in South-West Wales.

In No Second Chances, Jones chronicles the curious world of People’s Vote. We learn about the different levels of the campaign, from eccentric online influencers to grassroots organizations to the profoundly divided leadership. Despite following the campaign closely, much was new to me and Jones narrates events in a lively and engaging style. Notwithstanding my opinion of the movement, I recommend the book without reservation.

Reading the book, two things struck me. Firstly, there was the extent to which the People’s Vote campaign spread ideological conflict among the British public. As Jones observes repeatedly, the movement was dominated by people with minimal background in politics.

‘None of these people had engaged in political activism very much beforehand, although they mostly profess a left-of-centre politics. They had largely sat out the referendum campaign, but their strong feelings about the result compelled them to action… This newly forged interest in politics had its upsides – dedication and vibrancy, an interest in art and culture – but it also had its downsides, such as evincing, as discussed, a “total misunderstanding of how the media works” or lacking a thoroughgoing understanding of how to effect political change in the UK.’

I was astonished by the case of Steve Bray, the anti-Brexit activist who became famous for his daily protests outside parliament. Despite dedicating his life to the campaign against Brexit, we learn that, on the announcement of the referendum, Bray was not sure which way to vote. Madeleina Kay, the ‘EU Supergirl’ activist, had a similar background.

Previously on this Substack, I have written about low liberalism. Following the expansion of higher education and diffusion of postmaterial values, liberalism is increasingly popular among non-elites. Whilst such voters think ideologically, their conceptual understanding is limited and they embrace populist methods and ideas which are not traditionally part of the morphology of liberalism.

The People’s Vote campaign was ground zero for much of this. Reflecting their lack of political experience, the likes of Bray and Kay embraced the cause with a crude missionary zeal and made demands which far exceeded liberal boundaries. I will never forget, for example, the tendency of extreme People’s Vote supporters to aim for the jailing of prominent Brexiteers.

Such popularization of ideology is an established trend across the West and political scientists are divided over its merits. I appreciate arguments for its progressive variant – liberal democracy needs a base of popular defenders – yet am dubious about its record in Britain. Had people like Bray and Kay remained ideological innocents, I suspect our country would be the better for it. They encouraged participation among the unengaged, yet also promoted misunderstanding, conspiracy theories and division.

The second thing that struck me was the ethics of the People’s Vote campaign. If I have one criticism of the book, it is that Jones seldom reflects on this issue. The movement was, of course, highly controversial and I spent a long time thinking about its rights and wrongs. Certain issues became clearer on the campaign trail. In Llanelli, a post-industrial town which is now a Reform stronghold, one man promised me ‘a fucking riot if we don’t leave’.

These were fighting words and they stayed with me. Though one should never cede to threats of violence, I reflected on the man’s logic. Leave had won the 2016 referendum. During hundreds of conversations I had with voters prior to the referendum, not once had the prospect of a second vote come up. All along, the unspoken agreement had been that, if Leave won, the UK would leave the European Union. Though the People’s Vote campaign pointed to irregularities, they always ignored the biggest irregularity of all; the Cameron government had publicly supported and funded Remain. After the Llanelli event, my doubts overwhelmed me and I had no further involvement with the movement.

Indeed, I began to regard People’s Vote as a counter-productive and extreme campaign. Though the movement assumed a meek form – Jones vividly depicts its Waitrose and EU beret aesthetic – it was arguably a wolf in sheep’s clothing. A few weeks ago, Matthew Goodwin was widely (and rightly) excoriated for casting doubt on the integrity of the Gorton and Denton by-election result. With his strident tone and rabble-rousing media presence, it is easy to regard Goodwin as an enemy of liberal democracy. Yet the People’s Vote campaign had a much more sinister goal; the revocation of an entire referendum result. Had the movement succeeded, it would have dealt a body blow to British democracy. The current rise of angry populism is striking enough; a second referendum might have turbo charged this.

No Second Chances ends with the 2019 election. As its Waterloo approached, the People’s Vote campaign gave way to party-based electioneering and quickly fizzled out. I would have chosen an alternative ending. In 2024, the Liberal Democrats set out a four-stage roadmap to repair the ‘broken relationship’ with the EU. But as many observed, the party failed to support many of these steps when, in March 2019, the Commons held indicative votes on alternatives to the May Withdrawal Agreement. The People’s Vote campaign had moved the goalposts and its parliamentary supporters were in no mood for compromise. There are similar hypocrisies on the Labour benches.

Were it not for the People’s Vote campaign, Britain’s contemporary relationship with the EU would probably be closer. Rather than acknowledging the result of an epochal vote and working towards a compromise, the movement bet the house and lost spectacularly.

It may go down as one of the worst campaigns in British political history.

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